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It has now been four months since Narendra Modi declared about 86% of monetary value of currency illegal. Linked here is the last in my series of updates, which was written soon after the deadline to deposit the demonetized currency. Most of the banned currency was eventually deposited, making a mockery of Modi, who had claimed that unaccounted money would not reach the banks. Perhaps 3% of the cash never reached the banks.
A cunning plan unravels
Those living outside India still have the option to return to the country, complete a number of formalities at the airport, and then hope that India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will do the conversion.
Many of these people are unfortunately return empty-handed. In India, where stamps, signatures of bureaucrats, file-passing, attesting of documents, etc. go with everything, a lot of submitted paperwork is deemed incomplete by the RBI.
India’s narrow money supply M1 has collapsed from 28.42 trillion rupees in September of 2016 to just slightly above 20 trillion rupees in December. This makes recently reported GDP growth data (see further below) particularly dubious – click to enlarge.
Modi never intended to hurt Indians who are living abroad, but in the
utter chaos of India, he can merely wave his magic wand and hope.
India’s bureaucracy has a life of its own. The silver lining is that the chaos of India makes it impossible to establish an all-out Stalinist state.